Often in the markets everyone is waiting for the end of May to fix their positions and go on a well-deserved summer vacation. However, this year, the sale on the cryptocurrency market started a little earlier – from mid-April. The protracted 3-month consolidation that began in the BTC market back in February was broken down on 12 May. Thus, as early as 2 weeks, a powerful fall wave began in the cryptocurrency market. In the previous article, we wrote that we expect the price to fall to $37,500.
We expected the beginning of the correction in the crypto market. Although, such a speed and strength, with which the entire market, led by Bitcoin, collapsed in a few days was difficult to foresee. If we look for a positive for investors in this situation, we can highlight several interesting facts.
The global trendline of Bitcoin buyers has stood
If we look at the strong growth wave in the BTCUSD market since March 2020, we can see that the price was moving in a clear channel:
As we can see in the chart, this trend channel has been working well for a whole year. The middle line of this channel worked out especially interestingly. On the chart, the BTC price met this dotted line three times. The last time buyers were unable to keep this line and this fact coincided with the breakout of the 3-month consolidation downward. Bitcoin price movement within this global channel leaves a great chance for buyers to continue the growth trend. The critical point for such a scenario will be the loss of control over $29,000-31,000. In this case, the cryptocurrency market will face a protracted depression with a long recovery period. However, looking at the trading dynamics in the period from 19 May to 24 May, we will keep the negative scenario as an alternative one.
Protracted consolidation of the BTC market for the whole summer is very likely
If we analyze in detail the trading volumes over the past week, it becomes clear that the current Bitcoin price range is clearly of interest to large players. Despite the large amount of negative news now, buyers are actively buying Bitcoin with limit orders:
On the hourly timeframe, we have noted the trading volumes during the last 3 powerful sellers attacks. As we see, the downward trend, which began on 12 May, has significantly changed its dynamics, especially in terms of volumes.
On 19 May, the fall was due to the triggering of buyers’ stop orders. The price fall rate on 19 May 19 was the same as the rebound rate. This period was quite emotional and thoughtless. Though, it was this period that showed which price zone should be actively monitored in order to understand the intentions of market participants.
Much more interesting information we can see looking at the price fall on 22-23 May. Problems for sellers with a confident price fall began from the mark of $35,500. It was from this mark that the trading volumes began to increase and buyers began to actively slow down the price. Thus, sellers were unable to update the previous low even due to the high volumes, while buyers showed their interest and desire to organize a powerful rebound.
Everything became clear on the evening of 23 May when, on the 15 minute timeframe, each subsequent the local low update occurred at high volumes:
It was after the complete exhaustion of sellers that the BTC price turned around and now there is a good counter-attack of buyers.
Globally, after such powerful impulses, the most likely scenario is the price stop in a broad consolidation. Therefore, at the moment, we expect the BTC price to continue to grow to $48000-50000 from where we expect a new fall wave within the triangle. The main question is how will other coins behave in the framework of such a global consolidation? However, this is already a topic for a new article!
