The trading week on the Bitcoin (BTC) market did not give investors a spectacular price rebound. The bounce scenario failed. Moreover, sellers this week again tried to take the initiative into their own hands and tested the mark of $33,379. An attempt to update the local high began on 26 May, but was unsuccessful. The main reason for sellers’ failure was the low trading volumes, which can be seen on the 4-hour timeframe:
Two main conditions for the Bitcoin price to continue growing
The rather passive response of buyers, which began on 29 May, confirms the very fact of sellers’ weakness, since there was no particular struggle in the market. Therefore, at the moment, BTC market participants are measuring their weakness and indifference. In this competition, the forces are equal, since the trading volumes for buying BTC are not growing. In addition, we do not see any sharp aggressive candles confirming the absence of sellers. To change the situation on the BTC market locally, buyers need to fulfill two conditions:
- Control the mark of $35,000 and do not allow the price to fall below this mark
- Fix above $39,000.
These two simple conditions will ensure the fulfillment of our main scenario – continued growth to the range of $48,000-50,000.
Stop of the dominance fall and global correction of BTC
If we analyze the BTCUSDT dominance chart in the crypto market, we can see that its rapid decline has ended:
The indicator fell to the level of January 2018, when the cryptocurrency market entered a prolonged phase of correction for 2 years. Throughout the correction, the BTC influence grew, which put other coins in terrible conditions for existence. At the moment, the complete destruction of the altcoin market has not happened. On the contrary, altcoins weathered the last Bitcoin price fall much better. Therefore, a local scenario of a rebound in the crypto market has a high probability. However, in 2018 we saw deep bounces of the BTC price, when the price bounced from $6,000 to $12,000.
On the weekly timeframe, we marked two places on the chart that, on the one hand, have nothing in common. In 2018, the BTC price correction began abruptly, and now – after a 3-month consolidation. But in these two trading situations, sellers carried out the first fall wave, after which a panic began in the cryptocurrency market. The first bounce up in 2018 was strong and high, as most market participants still believed in the continuation of the upward trend. We are waiting for a similar scenario now. Therefore, we need to be careful and set more realistic targets in your trades, since there may not be such generous growth waves in the market for a certain period.
