The tense situation in the Bitcoin market is beginning to gradually change, giving buyers a chance for a new growth wave. The unsuccessful attempt of sellers on 22 June to continue the BTCUSDT price fall ended only with the previous low update. Having formed a false breakout on the daily timeframe, buyers did not stop and closed the weekly candle with the pin down.
Looking at the trading volumes previous week, we can conclude that the range of $28,800-30,500 is very important for Bitcoin buyers. The unsuccessful attempt of sellers to break through this range showed the interest of big money for at least one more medium-term growth wave. Considering this fact, our main scenario for the formation of a local growth wave to the range of $48,000-50,000 remains the main one.
The correction of the previous fall wave from 10 May has not started yet
If we pay attention to a slightly smaller timeframe (three-day), we see that the fall wave, which sellers began on 10 May, has not been stopped yet:
The BTCUSD price has moved to the consolidation channel, where it is trading at high volumes. If we compare the consolidation from March to May 2021 with the current one, it is clear that a new fall wave began due to the disinterest of buyers to buy at historical highs. However, in the current consolidation, we see that buyers are still interested and are successfully gaining positions (trading volumes are 1.5 times higher now than in consolidation on highs).
The impact of USDT on the cryptocurrency market begins to decline
If we analyze the USDT dominance chart in the cryptocurrency market, then from 10 May (just when the BTC price fell), the USDT dominance began to grow. This is a natural fact that explains that investors fix their positions and enter stablecoins. However, at the moment, the indicator of USDT dominance is at a critical point. And it indicates a high probability of the completion of the current fall wave:
As we can see in the chart, USDT dominance has been moving clearly within the black channel since March 2020.
First local target of Bitcoin buyers is $40,500
If we analyze the situation locally, buyers have kept the lower consolidation line and are now trying to fix above the middle line:
On the 6-hour timeframe, we see that a triangle with a flat top is formed, which is more likely to be broken upwards. Though, one more local fall wave is missing, which will confirm the weakness and complete exhaustion of sellers. This fall wave should not go below $31,500-31,700. Therefore, this week we expect a test of the upper limit of consolidation $40,500. The breakout and consolidation of Bitcoin price above this mark will confirm our main scenario for the continued growth of the price to $48,000-50,000.
An alternative scenario in the BTC market will take effect after the price fixes below $28,800. In this case, the next stop of the price will be at $25,000.