Today to your attention is the analysis and interpretation of what we are drawing and seeing on the BTСUSDT chart on the month time frame.
At the top of the chart are two parabolic arcs: a white arc and a black arc, because the amplitude of the price growth at %% each year is fading.
At the bottom is the white trendline, to which the price has fallen only three times at strong falls of cryptos: November 2011, March 2020 and May 2022.
Two main scenarios for Bitcoin
Today 31.05.2022 the monthly candlestick of BTСUSD price closes and at what price it will close, we can guess what the mood of the market players is and where the price may move next.
So, the two scenarios:
1) Positive – ideally, the closure of the current month candle and the opening of a new one above $34500. In this case the chart will show 6 false-breaks of the Fibo level $34500 during the last year (May 2021-May 2022) with a buy-up. This could be interpreted to mean that: the “big players” in crypto are happy to buy BTC at any price below $34,500 and have been buying and gaining a long position at that price for over a year because they believe in strong Bitcoin price growth in the future.
Another point is the Fear and Greed Index. It has been stamping the bottom around the value of 10-12 for 2 weeks. There was a similar pattern in late 2018 into early 2019, only for 3 weeks and then a 300+% rise in the BTCUSDT price.
If we guess such growth for the next 6-7 months, the BTCUSDT price could be close to the $100k mark by the end of 2022. At the same mark there will be an intersection, of the Fibo level and the black parabolic arc. Only the section at the level of $191 thousand is higher, which is hardly believable now.
2) Negative is if during the next trading month the price of the BTCUSDT fails to consolidate above $34500, but just retests that level. In that case, the price could break through the white trendline downward in the future and gradually, by the end of 2022, fall into the liquid zone of $12-14k. What will happen to the alts in that case – it’s scary to imagine.
Well, put like under the idea, write your comments, what we can expect in the future in your opinion.
And we, in turn, will from time to time update our opinions about the pair BTCUSD on smaller timeframes, based on this global idea.