Today we will consider what prospects there may be in the SOL cryptocurrency. On 11/14/22 the Solana website published a lengthy update on how strongly the Solana Fondathion is connected to FTX/Alameda.
We will compress this information into several lines.
SOL cryptocurrency and its capital
Solana Fondathion owns 1 mln. cash or equivalent in FTX accounts, said it was less than 1% of their capital.
That is, we conditionally assume that the liquid capital of Solana Fondathion is +/- $100 million.
- 3.24 million common shares of FTX Trading LTD – the value is close to zero.
- 3.43 million FTT tokens – value at the time of writing +/- $7 million.
134.54 million SRM tokens from DEX Project Serum, which Samuel Banckman
- Fried created based on Solana in 2020. – cost +/- $37 million
FTX and its subsidiary cryptocurrency trading firm Alameda Research (also co-founded by Bankman-Fried) purchased more than 50.5 million SOLs from the Fund, which are currently valued at approximately $750 million. However, a significant portion of these SOLs are locked in and have a monthly release schedule that runs through 2028.
Solana Labs, the company that represents the founders and core members of the Solana network, also sold more than 7.56 million SOL (worth about $112 million) to Alameda Research. All these tokens will be unlocked for trading in 2025.
The CEO previously said that Solana Labs was not affected by the FTX collapse and has no listed assets.
But the market cannot be fooled and Japanese candles show the mood of market participants rather than indicators. The price of the SOL cryptocurrency has fallen by -57% over the past week, despite the fact that the price of BTC or ETH has fallen by -20%
SOL Cryptocurrency – Main Scenarios
Now the price of SOL has reached a very critical point.
If Solana finds additional capital, it will probably try to raise the price of SOL to at least $40-50. That is, the blue scenario can be considered very positive and unlikely, analyzing current realities.
The above describes how closely SOLANA is related to FTX and its derivatives, so the price of SOL will react very strongly to any news related to FTX.
Below $13 per SOL there is no liquidity and a likely price drop to $2-4 is a very pessimistic forecast, but quite likely in the current reality.